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Paris Saint-Germain is on a hot streak like no other club since Man City of the early 2020s. PSG isn't just beating iconic teams of Europe, but rather embarrassing the world's best lineups with one-sided scores. Could it be that City old's nemesis Chelsea is the team that can slow down the Parisians?
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Final Odds: Chelsea vs PSG (Sunday, July 13, 3 PM Eastern Time)
Thousands of sports betting manuals say to make picks "against the public." In the Final, it might be a good idea to go with the public on the O/U line. In fact, it could be a gimme.
There's little indication that Chelsea will try for a 1-0 win. The Blues' freewheeling form forced more wide-open tactics out of teams like Benfica and Palmeiras on route to the finals, and any notion of playing catch with the ball is crazy against PSG's ability to press and generate breakaways.
If PSG's attack is kept at bay for 30:00, Chelsea may decide that a good offense is the best way to keep that bottle corked, and produce a "corker" that punishes PSG for its occasionally ambitious forward numbers in the way Bayern was nearly able to. Palmer will not keep warming to the challenge if his team circles the wagons. Meanwhile, PSG's likeliest winning score is 3-1.
PSG vs Chelsea Pick #1: Over (2.5) Total Goals @ -175 with bet365
The intuitive prop bet on either team winning a half feels like Chelsea's long-odds market to win the first half. If the Blues surprise us by coming out like AFC Bournemouth and playing for a deadlock early-on, then at least those bettors who picked half-time spreads could prevail with Chelsea's line.
In considering how the tournament played out, it's wiser to recommend an "opposite sketch" pick, not in which Barth sells healthy food at the diner, but in which bet365's clients could win by picking Chelsea to win the second half, or to include the second half for Chelsea in a double-chance "either half" wager. The angle is that Chelsea has indeed had an easier row to hoe than PSG, but that's potentially a good thing for the Blues. If PSG's fatigue shows up, it will happen in half #2.
There's also an interesting "back door cover" possible if PSG has another dominant first half, then decides to get loose and make too much merry with another 3-0 lead against an angry Chelsea.
PSG vs Chelsea Pick #2: Chelsea to Win Either Half @ +175 odds with bet365
Have the markets forgotten PSG's Khvicha Kvaratskhelia again? To do that, you've got to forget most of the alphabet. The Georgian winger's odds have stayed put while bet365 books heavier action with wagers on Ramos and others, from Kvaratskhelia's (+163) odds to score, to a still more-attractive gamble on the winger taking just two-or-more shots on target at (+100) proposition odds.
Kvaratskhelia's seasoning at Napoli will help him shoot between the posts if Chelsea does try to get by with a drawn score and win in a tiebreaker. If things get wide-open, all PSG players' prop bets rise in value. Let's hope bettors work to shorten Kvaratskhelia's odds … before we make a spelling error.
PSG vs Chelsea Pick #3: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Take 2+ Shots on Target @ (+100) with bet365
Those Champions League playoff ties don't shine so dimly on the EFL after all. PSG looked as though it had relegated the Premier League's shields "Burnley-style" to a lower tier of continental combat after beating Liverpool. Aston Villa, and Arsenal in succession across five total matches. But in hindsight, Liverpool's 1-1 deadlock was the closest anyone has come to knocking out PSG.
Paris Saint-Germain's (-167) odds to beat Chelsea in the 2025 Final, set to air on TBS and DAZN this Sunday at 3 p.m. EST, would have been unfathomable when the Parisians were still considered Champions League also-rans, even in seasons when Messi played in Paris. The line has been earned with an awesome 10-0 goal differential in the playoffs, following late spring's 5-0 trashing of proud Inter Milan. PSG is drawing (-344) odds to lift the trophy.
It's easy to see why PSG is thought to be on clear water. There are no more reunions with names like Lionel Messi or Kylian Mbappe, factors which were considered potential distractions as bloggers tried to play-up what vinegar may still exist from each striker's departure from Paris. Rather than produce epic grudge-matches, each superstar showed up and lost to PSG like everybody else has been doing.
An early semi-final goal from Ousmane Dembele against Real Madrid showed that Dembele is also reinvigorated from injuries that limited the goal-scoring ace earlier in summer, and puts the final hope for a PSG weakness to bed. Dembele leads all player-props with (+100) bet365 odds to tally against Chelsea in the CWC Final. His teammate Goncalo Ramos is a popular (+120) wager.
Chelsea could still attract bettors at (+240) underdog odds to lift hardware. The Blues of modern day love playing the role of the underdog, whether it's been defeating Man City's title berths with upset championships in 2021, or knocking Arsenal and PSG out in previous UCL showdowns. In May, Chelsea beat Liverpool, the opponent that gave PSG its toughest fight in many months.
There's no denying Paris had a tougher bracket to best than Chelsea in getting to Sunday's finale. PSG has defeated Messi's team, followed by two far more accomplished shields from Europe, while Chelsea defeated one team from Portugal and two from Brazil in the CWC's playoff rounds. The Parisians cost a lot more expensive bet365 title picks to miss than Chelsea has this July.
Chelsea does have a striker whose stock is rising, though Cole Palmer may not have shaken those "Cold Palmer!" jeers just yet. His proposition odds to score at least once against PSG are dull at (+225), at least compared to PSG's hefty individual and team betting action for the final. The Parisians will be ready to rumble with a chance to win "quadruple" hardware with a win.
Europe's bloggers have snarked that the USA's summer weather is "what we have to look forward to" in the Men's World Cup. If that's true, then perhaps the World Cup Final of 2026 will be played under pleasant skies. New Jersey's forecast is for temperatures just above 80 degrees, with sunny patches and almost no wind, one more reason why over (2.5) total goals bets are selling like hotcakes.
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